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Beijing has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.