A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
